Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.

The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.

A source close to the Brexit secretary, David Davis, said he and the chancellor,Philip Hammond, had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.

However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.

The so-called passporting rights for members of the single market allow UK-based banks to offer financial services to companies and individuals across the EU unimpeded, yet the French president, François Hollande, is among those who have insisted in recent weeks that hard Brexit will mean “hard negotiation” and Britain will need to “pay the price” of leaving.

A hard Brexit would involve the UK leaving both the single market, a central pillar of which is freedom of movement, and the customs union, which could potentially reintroduce tariff and non-tariff restrictions on British imports and exports.

Browne warns that British and European politicians who appear to be pursuing “anti-trade” goals need to recognise that “putting up barriers to the trade in financial services across the Channel will make us all worse off”.

Browne, whose organisation has been in intense negotiations with the government, further warns the EU that banks based in the UK are currently lending £1.1tn, therefore “keeping the continent afloat financially”, and this arrangement is at risk.

Anthony Browne of the British Bankers’ Association says the whole of Europe will suffer if the UK chooses a hard Brexit.

Of Britain’s position, he writes that banking is the country’s biggest export industry by far and the current trajectory threatens not just tariff-free trade, but the legal right of banks to provide services.

“Most international banks now have project teams working out which operations they need to move to ensure they can continue serving customers, the date by which this must happen, and how best to do it,” he says.

“Their hands are quivering over the relocate button. Many smaller banks plan to start relocations before Christmas; bigger banks are expected to start in the first quarter of next year.”

Sources close to Davis dismissed speculation that he believed a solution would be for the City to strike an “equivalence” deal with the EU, under which the regulatory systems are recognised by both parties through a one-off agreement. Browne writes that some Brexiters have made such an argument, but such a deal would not be enough to stop banks deserting Britain.

“On this side of the Channel, some high-profile Brexiters have poured scorn on the idea that we need passporting at all and that other regimes such as ‘third country equivalence’ will do,” he says.

“But the EU’s equivalence regime is a poor shadow of passporting – it only covers a narrow range of services, can be withdrawn at virtually no notice, and will probably mean the UK will have to accept rules it has no influence over. For most banks, equivalence won’t prevent them from relocating their operations.”

It has been reported that Goldman Sachs is among those drawing up plans to transfer around 2,000 of its employees to a rival European city, should the UK lose its passporting rights.

The industry body TheCityUk has claimed that up to 70,000 financial jobs could be lost if Britain leaves the EU without a new, credible relationship in place for the City of London.

Browne says he understands the motivation of those who are seeking to take business from UK shores, but he condemns politicians who appear to be willing to break up the integrated financial market, which “makes it easier and cheaper for French farmers, German manufacturers and Italian fashion designers to secure funding”.

He writes: “It is understandable that other European cities want to attract jobs from London. Delegations from Frankfurt, Paris, Dublin and Madrid are all coming to the UK to pitch to bankers. I am pro-competition, and long may they try to make their labour market and fiscal policy more attractive to international investors.

“That is not the problem. The problem comes when national governments try to use the EU exit negotiations to build walls across the Channel to split Europe’s integrated financial market in two, in order to force jobs from London.”

The scale of the task facing the UK in striking a good Brexit deal with the EU has been put in stark relief by the apparent collapse of the proposed EU-Canada trade pact.

On Saturday, there were frantic diplomatic efforts to salvage a deal after Canada’s international trade minister, Chrystia Freeland, walked out of talks. She described the situation as “impossible” on Friday and cast doubt on the bloc’s ability to operate effectively after the proposals were blocked by a regional administration in Belgium.

The parliament in Wallonia is holding up the deal, although the region’s leader, Paul Magnette, suggested the standoff could be resolved within days. It has concerns the deal will undermine labour, environment and consumer standards, and allow multinationals to crush local firms.

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London’s financial services industry is already planning to move business overseas due to the uncertainty of the Brexitprocess, the head of the British Bankers’ Association has warned.

Anthony Browne blamed fears that European Union (EU) politicians will want to erect trade barriers in an attempt to weaken the City of London during the Brexit negotiations for the planned moves.

Smaller banks could begin moving some operations overseas within weeks, with larger institutions following in the first few months of 2017, he predicted.

“Their hands are quivering over the relocate button,” he said.

Writing in The Observer, he said: “Banking is probably more affected by Brexit than any other sector of the economy, both in the degree of impact and the scale of the implications.

“It is the UK’s biggest export industry by far and is more internationally mobile than most. But it also gets its rules and legal rights to serve its customers cross-border from the EU.

“For banks, Brexit does not simply mean additional tariffs being imposed on trade – as is likely to be the case with other sectors. It is about whether banks have the legal right to provide services.”

The industry would like to see the continuation of the EU’s “passporting” regime, which allows financial services firms based in the UK to operate throughout Europe without seeking separate authorisation.

He warned that in European capitals and among British Eurosceptics “the rhetoric is hardening” and politics could trump the economic advantages of allowing the present system to remain relatively untouched.

“The problem comes – as seems increasingly likely, judging by the rhetoric – when national governments try to use the EU exit negotiations to build walls across the Channel to split Europe’s integrated financial market in two, in order to force jobs from London.

“From a European perspective, this would be cutting off its nose to spite its face.

“It might lead to a few jobs moving to Paris or Frankfurt but it will make it more expensive for companies in France and Germany to raise money for investment, slowing the wider economy.”

Banks have called for transition arrangements to be put in place after the UK leaves the EU but the uncertainty over the future – with years of negotiations with Brussels ahead – has left them with little option but to take steps to protect their futures.

Mr Browne said: “Banks might hope for the best but have to plan for the worst.

“Most international banks now have project teams working out which operations they need to move to ensure they can continue serving customers, the date by which this must happen and how best to do it.

“Their hands are quivering over the relocate button. Many smaller banks plan to start relocations before Christmas; bigger banks are expected to start in the first quarter of next year.

“London will survive as a global financial centre. Finance is inventive and will find a way through.

“But putting up barriers to the trade in financial services across the Channel will make us all worse off, not just in the UK but in mainland Europe.”

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Thailand has come a long way in recent years, perhaps a lot further than what many people might imagine. The economy has seen steady growth over the last 25 years with this expected to continue at between 2.9% and 3.3% between 2016 and 2018 according to The World Bank.

This growth is certainly significant when you consider other countries in the region are experiencing slowing growth or are already a long way behind Thailand.

With ASEAN now in place, although the effects of which are yet to be fully experienced, you have to question the role that Thailand will play within the community. As always there will be doubters but when you think about it rationally Thailand is in a very strong position.

The country is blessed with natural resources, lots of large multinationals that have a presence in the country, the currency is relative stable whilst at the same time growing in strength and the stock exchange and retail markets are following in a similar fashion.

Labour is Thailand is not as cheap as some neighbouring countries although the workforce has a much higher level of skill thanks to better education and the influence of overseas companies. This will give Thailand an advantage over emerging nations as pay scales are still lower that some of the countries that may be perceived as being more developed. The government also offers attractive assistance to overseas companies in the form of BOI backing in certain industries – again benefitting the country as a whole and encouraging increased overseas investment.

Cambodia and Myanmar often make headlines for being growing forces within South East Asia and indeed this is the case but this should not take anything away from Thailand, a country that has already achieved these goals and is now striving to reach far higher targets and objectives. A few years of financial stability and continued growth, something that is predicted, will see Thailand move far in front of these developing nations.

With the infrastructure firmly in place, Thailand is now looking to make gains on countries such as Malaysia, Singapore and Japan. There is no reason why these goals cannot be obtained and this is what makes investing in Thailand at the present time such an attractive option.

It is quite reasonable to think that Thailand could become a dominant economic force in the region and as the country starts to show gains the markets and property prices will inevitably rise.

Therefore it seems perfectly possible that a country such as Thailand could become an economic force within the region and maybe this would be less of a surprise than many people might think.

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Thailand saw moderate activity last year, with subdued private investment and manufacturing virtually stagnating for the second consecutive year. Moreover, the death of King Bhumibol Adulyadej in October cast a cloud on consumer sentiment, especially due to an official year-long mourning period. However, there is a silver lining as recent indicators suggest a slight uptick in activity in Q4: exports rebounded strongly in November and manufacturing growth rose at a multi-year high, lifting the subpar annual performance. The political state of affairs is unlikely to gain momentum anytime soon: a recent request from new King Vajiralongkorn to amend the military draft constitution is expected to delay the elections planned for 2017 to 2018. However, the changes requested are not pivotal: they only represent a slight shift of power from the King to the yet-to-be-elected government.

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Author: Pharadon Heemmuden

Highlight

• The market outlook for rubberwood exports is bright thanks to an increasing supply, as well as demand, especially from China, where the furniture industry is growing. Thai rubberwood is competitive in the global market due to its price and quality.
• EIC sees increased potential for the local production of rubberwood furniture and other wooden products, which will help boost Thailand’s export value. Both the public and private sectors should join hands in research and development of new rubberwood products with an eye especially on design and branding.

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The Thai government hopes a move to spark a shopping spree by offering tax breaks and cash handouts at the end of the year will improve economic stimulus in the fourth quarter.

The cabinet approved a tax break for shopping spending or spending on services during the festive season between December 14-31.

Bank of Thailand Governor Veerathai Santiprabhob said the tax breaks would be a smart short-term stimulus measure before major government projects were launched next year.

As such, they will have saved from 750 baht up to 5,250 baht in taxes for the 15,000 baht shopping spending, depending on their taxable incomes.

Veerathai said temporary factors affecting economic activities were lower agricultural prices, mainly rice, the crackdown on zero-dollar tours resulting in the decline in Chinese tourists and the mourning period for His Majesty the King.

The government needs a short- term stimulus measure to fuel |economic growth in the fourth quarter, he said.

The tax breaks should be a short- term tool because boosting spending will impact on future domestic demand, he said.

There is also a remedial measure to spur economic growth, with the government handing out Bt12.5 billion to the poor, or between Bt1,500 and Bt3,000 each person.

Mr Kobsak Phutrakul, assistant minister to the Prime Minister’s Office, said the government expected that the tax break would help boost spending during the festive season before year end.

No booze please

Shopping spending for the following items will not be eligible to tax break namely liquor, beer, tobacco, fuel oil and gas for vehicles and vessels.

Mr Kobsak said the measure would cost the government about 3.2 billion baht in revenue loss, but, on the other hand, would generate about 20 billion baht in circulation in the economic system or 0.2 percent of the GDP.

On top of that, the assistant minister to the Prime Minister’s Office claimed that the tax break would boost job creation and production until early next year.

Moreover, he said that the measure would encourage business operators to enter tax system which, in the long run, will benefit the government’s revenue collection in the future

Giving cash handouts to low income-earners

Three state-owned banks have started giving one-time cash handouts ranging from 1,500-3,000 baht to low income-earners in agriculture and non-farming sectors.

Government spokesman Lt-Gen Sansern Kaewkamnerd said over the weekend that he expected the payments to the qualified recipients to be completed before the year-end as New Year’s gift from the government.

He disclosed that there are altogether 6,981,000 qualified low income-earners who are eligible to receive the cash handouts to be wired directly into their bank accounts by the three banks, namely Krung Thai, Government Savings and Bank of Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives.

Those who earn less than 30,000 baht a year will receive 3,000 baht while those earn more than 30,000 baht but not exceeding 100,000 baht will get 1,500 baht. These one-time cash handouts are applicable for those in agricultural and non-agricultural sectors.

Source: Tax break on goods needed to fuel economy, says BOT chief

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Thailand goes outbound. Thai investments abroad, also known as “Outward Foreign Direct Investments (OFDI),” have come in the focus while the domestic industry lags behind the stated targets. However, Thai-foreign business project registration clearance papers and requirements should be carefully observed.

Not only Thailand’s well-known public companies act as a global player when investing in foreign companies as a joint venture partner or financial investor. Even international conglomerates use their Thai affiliate company as the perfect vehicle for outward foreign direct investments. Also, Thai wealthy families and individuals are keen to invest abroad to mitigate the risk profile in their investment portfolio.

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What marketing works that doesn’t cost years of your life or thousands of dollars?

How much would you pay for 1,000 new ‘targeted people’ to come to your website each month? What return on investment would you expect from it? Maybe 3-5% of these 1000 new visitors clicking your ‘Contact us page’?

If say 5% of 1000 made a serious inquiry that’s 50 extra inquiries and if your business converts 1/3 inquiries to sales then you would have say 15 new sales that month, and 15 new customers.

Depends of course on what you are selling, if you sell plastic writing pens and your average order value is $1 then nope it’s not going to be worth it. But; if your average is more than say 1,000 USD, then yes most likely.

With close to 800 million websites out there now, how are you going to get this traffic?

Will you try P.P.C. (Pay per Click) Advertising from Google? You may find it’s like $10 for a click especially for a decent searched keyword, the higher the search volume, the more the click costs.

Regardless of how targeted Google P.P.C. says it is, you will need a professional landing page with years of experience in A+B Split testing to get the client down the payment funnel to the last page where they pay online or book an appointment with you. Professional online marketers get about ten percent sales ratios to visitors who are sent down their sales funnel so at $10 a click you are already $100 for a customer via P.P.C..

To get 1,000 targeted visitors for the 15 new customers via P.P.C. in this example, you are looking at 10,000 U.S.D spend first! So your Average order value needs to be over $1,000 especially when you consider you need to pay staff because if you don’t have a professional website team, then you could be very badly out of pocket!

Social media works, but what they don’t tell you it’s mostly branding, as in you need to be active on Facebook and Twitter for years to be trusted and for you to develop a trusted brand image. If you have a profile on LinkedIn, you know it’s a good platform to find business, but it is not without their chancers and spammers who think that everyone is open to a blatant;

“Hi thanks for connecting, whenever you want beating up at our Judo club let me know” message.

You could send 500 of these messages Via LinkedIn, which will take a week and you will be lucky to get one email back.

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Our 2017 annual letter is addressed to our dear friend Warren Buffett, who in 2006 donated the bulk of his fortune to our foundation to fight disease and reduce inequity. A few months ago, Warren asked us to reflect on what impact his gift has had on the world.

What follows is our answer to him.

It’s a story about the stunning gains the poorest people in the world have made over the last 25 years. This incredible progress has been made possible not only by the generosity of Warren and other philanthropists, the charitable giving of individuals across the world, and the efforts of the poor on their own behalf—but also by the huge contributions made by donor nations, which account for the vast majority of global health and development funding.

Our letter is being released amid dramatic political transitions in these countries, including new leadership in the United States and the United Kingdom. We hope this story will remind everyone why foreign aid should remain a priority—because by lifting up the poorest, we express the highest values of our nations.

One of the greatest of those values is the belief that the best investment any of us can ever make is in the lives of others. As we explain to Warren in our letter, the returns are tremendous.

Dear Warren,

Your gift a decade ago left us speechless. It was the biggest single gift anyone ever gave anybody for anything, and we knew we owed you a fantastic return on your investment.

In this letter, we’ll share some highlights with you, and we’ll focus on global health—because that was the starting point of our philanthropy, and it’s the majority of what we do.

We don’t have sales and profits to show you. But there are numbers we watch closely to guide our work and measure our progress.

Let’s start with the most important one.

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According to Juniper Research, the global ride sharing market is estimated to grow to $6.5 billion by 2020 from $3.3 billion in 2015. North America is the biggest region in the industry and is expected to account for a third of the market share. Western Europe and Asia-Pacific, excluding Far East and China, are estimated to be the next big regions. While Uber maybe the biggest known brand worldwide, other local services are making a big impact in their respective regions. Billion Dollar Unicorn club member Careem is leading the market in the Middle East.

Careem’s Offerings

Dubai-based Careem was founded in 2012 by McKinsey alumni Mudassir Sheikha and Magnus Olsson. The service was initially set up as a web-based service for corporate car bookings. But as the market evolved, it transitioned to becoming an app that would allow individuals to book a car for hire. The company has expanded its geographic presence outside of Dubai as well. Today, its service is available in 11 countries and more than 52 cities in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan regions. It claims that it has 150,000 drivers in these countries and helps transport more than 6 million cab riders.

Careem’s Regulatory Concerns

Like Uber, Careem is also no stranger to regulatory controversies. Last year, local taxi drivers in Egypt claimed that Careem was operating without official taxi licenses and demanded government intervention. Luckily for the companies, the Egyptian government ruled in favour of Careem and Uber, thus allowing them to operate legally in the country.

However, things are not so rosy in Abu Dhabi. Ride sharing services of both Careem and Uber were suspended in August without indicating the reason. Earlier this month, Careem announced plans to relaunch its services in Abu Dhabi. It is also adding a new service called Careem Limo to operate under the regulations for limo services in Abu Dhabi. This will make Careem the only ride-hailing app service in the city.

Even in its home town Dubai, Careem has had to revisit its pricing options. Last month, Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) announced a rule to impose some new charges on ride-hailing services. The Authority will be charging a surcharge of AED3 (~$0.82) per trip on Careem users. The surcharge is part of planned new regulations for transport services to deal with app-based ride-hailing platforms. Careem had earlier tied up with RTA in Dubai to allow users to book RTA taxis through the Careem app. The service is expected to be launched soon and will not be charged the surcharge.

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The smartphones that sit uncomfortably inside our pocket are now more powerful than the large desktop computers from 10 years ago. However, many people will tell you that these fantastic advances in technology are not always a sign of progress.

For example, anyone that remembers the days when the tank like Nokia 3310 ruled the world will scoff at our unusual modern ways. Back in simpler times, you didn’t have to worry about dropping your phone or constantly searching for a power socket to charge your phone, and it even fit in your pocket.

You didn’t feel the need to have to search for a game that you somehow buried on page 7 of your phone apps because the only game you played was called Snake. This was an era where reliability and resilience were rated much higher than shiny new gimmickry.

Sure, there was a reversal of fortune when the iPhone appeared on the scene, and we fell in love with mobile apps and screens that shatter just by looking at concrete. Eventually, Microsoft infamously acquired Nokia’s mobile phone business in 2014 for a whopping $7.17 billion in a move that would eventually be the kiss of death for the Nokia phone as we knew it.

According to Evan Blass, HMD Global Oy, the Finnish manufacturer with exclusive rights to market phones under the Nokia brand have an interesting announcement on the horizon. It appears there are plans to announce four handsets at Mobile World Congress later this month including the much loved Nokia 3310 that many still remember as the first phone they fell in love with.

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