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Why People Are Excited About The Return Of The Reliable Nokia 3310

The smartphones that sit uncomfortably inside our pocket are now more powerful than the large desktop computers from 10 years ago. However, many people will tell you that these fantastic advances in technology are not always a sign of progress.

For example, anyone that remembers the days when the tank like Nokia 3310 ruled the world will scoff at our unusual modern ways. Back in simpler times, you didn’t have to worry about dropping your phone or constantly searching for a power socket to charge your phone, and it even fit in your pocket.

You didn’t feel the need to have to search for a game that you somehow buried on page 7 of your phone apps because the only game you played was called Snake. This was an era where reliability and resilience were rated much higher than shiny new gimmickry.

Sure, there was a reversal of fortune when the iPhone appeared on the scene, and we fell in love with mobile apps and screens that shatter just by looking at concrete. Eventually, Microsoft infamously acquired Nokia’s mobile phone business in 2014 for a whopping $7.17 billion in a move that would eventually be the kiss of death for the Nokia phone as we knew it.

According to Evan Blass, HMD Global Oy, the Finnish manufacturer with exclusive rights to market phones under the Nokia brand have an interesting announcement on the horizon. It appears there are plans to announce four handsets at Mobile World Congress later this month including the much loved Nokia 3310 that many still remember as the first phone they fell in love with.

February 16, 2019ZONEZI No commentsBusiness, News

Cold Calling is, by some distance, the most controversial topic in the sales community right now.

There’s been a lot of articles written about it and everyone has strong opinions. Most people are talking from personal experience and some with the benefit of having run a team.

I work for a company that makes more than 40,000 cold calls per week, to all parts of the globe. Does that give me more insight than most? I’m not sure, but here’s my tuppence worth to add to the debate, tell me what you think once you’ve read about what we’ve learned.

First the good news – it does still work – no matter what anyone tries to tell you.

Now the bad; cold calling isn’t easy and never will be…period. But the worst thing about it? The time it takes.

Does that time make it a viable way for an expensive BDM to spend their time? Again, things aren’t as black and white as most arguments I’ve seen and read. The genuine answer is; it depends.

On what?

Geography is, perhaps surprisingly, one of the biggest variables. Both where you are calling to and from. Brand recognition is huge. Having an engaging story is way more important than your product. Saturation plays a part – we know this more than most as a telemarketing agency – I’m not sure there’s a marketing or sales director (our usual KDM’s) who hasn’t been called a thousand times by telemarketing agencies. Timing is more important than people give it credit for. Data is the essential fuel required for cold calling. Ability is important, experience less so. What you say isn’t nearly as important as how you say it (despite the endless articles about what words to use). But attitude is, by some distance, the biggest single determinant of a successful outcome.

Before I go any further – we need to define what I’m talking about when I say cold call.

I went to see Joanne Black give a talk this morning (thanks John Smibert and Tony Hughes for inviting her Down Under) and I agree with Joanne’s definition as; someone who I have never spoken to, who doesn’t know me and whom I’m now calling out of the blue.

Everything else has caveats.

Talking of caveats or perhaps disclaimers – I had better cover some of those before I go any further. These are my personal observations made from watching, hearing and getting results on the more than 40,000 cold calls we, as in the company I work for, make every week to various parts of the world. What I’m sharing are generalisations. But I won’t share data, as my boss wouldn’t dream of letting me, and I doubt our clients would be very happy if I did. I see exceptions to everything I’m about to say… every single day.

February 16, 2019ZONEZI No commentsBusiness, News

The Board of Investment of Thailand (BOI) has expanded its 2016 investment value target to 550,000 million baht ($ 16 Bln), an increase of about 20% from the previous target of 450,000 million baht

Improved political and economic situation enhance investment climate and investors’ confidence and New opportunities explored in overseas markets while actual investment activities in Thailand to be accelerated.

BOI manpower to be expanded to support more aggressive investment promotion Driven by political and economic recovery, the Board of Investment of Thailand (BOI) has expanded its 2016 investment value target to 550,000 million baht ($ 16 Bln), an increase of about 20% from the previous target of 450,000 million baht.

The new target was announced at the annual meeting, chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak, with the heads of the BOI’s 14 overseas offices today. Mr Somkid updated the meeting in Bangkok about the positive signal in political and economic recovery and global investment trend that moves toward Asia.

Considering such trend, he recommended BOI to increase manpower to support the expected increase in investment inflow and to grow new and existing markets across Asia, including Japan, Korea, China, India as well as Singapore.

“Other advantages, such as the benefits of using Thailand as the hub to grow business in China, ASEAN and India can be highlighted to draw more investment”

BOI has adjusted its application target from 450,000 million baht to 550,000 million baht. The 10 target industries will remain in focus. We hope to increase the proportion of investment in these target industries to more than 50% of the total investment application.

“Considering the very positive trend in investment applications, coupled with strong investors’ confidence towards economic and political development in Thailand, we are certain to achieve the new investment goal by the end of 2016.”

In the first seven months of 2016, the number of investment incentive applications by project increased by 77% while application value soared by 218%.

The BOI received 853 applications worth 320,720 million baht, up from 483 projects with a value of 100,740 million baht in the same period of 2015.

The value of project applications in the 10 target industries accounted for 43% of the total applications or 138,871 million baht, reflecting the success of investment promotion policy and execution. An investor confidence survey done by the BOI in May 2016 also showed a positive trend.

The survey, released last week, indicated that 32.8% of companies currently investing in the country have plans to expand their investment. The majority of respondents cited good infrastructure, sufficient supplies of parts and suppliers, efficient logistics and strong investment promotion incentives as key factors behind their decisions.

Meanwhile, investors’ concerns over political and economic instability have significantly decreased from the same period last year, showing overall improved confidence in Thailand’s political and economic development.

Investors’ concern over the government sector’s transparency has significantly dropped from 30.15% in 2015 down to only 19.38%. In addition, the increase in GDP growth from 3.2% in the first quarter this year to 3.5% in the second quarter contributed to improved confidence among investors and the business sector in the Thai economy and its outlook.

“Thanks to these positive factors, the overall investment outlook is promising,” said Mrs Hirunya.

To maintain and enhance the positive investment momentum and confidence, the BOI will continue its plan to promote Thai investment opportunities in major markets through international road shows. In the remaining four months, a total of more than 40 road shows are planned in major markets, such as Japan, South Korea, China and northern Europe. The BOI will also work closely with its partners worldwide, including leading organisations in the trade, investment and banking sectors.

Honorary investment advisers will provide information about investment opportunities and government support in Thailand.

“With a concerted effort from the BOI’s 14 overseas offices worldwide, local offices and concerned government organisations, we hope to attract more investment from foreign investors, especially in the 10 target industries that are crucial to supporting the transformation of Thailand to a knowledge-based economy. Coupled with the positive development trend and political and economic stability, the country’s strength as the gateway to ASEAN and South Asia, as well as the upcoming laws that enhance investment climate, including the new BOI law, Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) law and the competitiveness fund law, Thailand is positioned well as the desirable investment destination,” said Mrs Hirunya.

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February 15, 2019ZONEZI No commentsBusiness, News

The total FDI into ASEAN countries in 2014 hit $136.2 billion, and Vietnam was the best performer among emerging territories in receiving inbound investment, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

Companies in Thailand and Japan are both eager to grow outside their home markets, which have witnessed low growth and have mature markets, in contrast to Vietnam’s soaring rate.

Vietnam’s politicians also revised the nation’s laws covering M&As, to make the process quicker and more transparent. A new law enacted in July has cut the time to acquire an investment license to just 15 days, a reduction of about two-thirds of the earlier duration.

A month earlier, the government said that foreigners can now buy majority stakes in certain kinds of listed companies.

Vietnam has also specified 18 industries including consumer, property, transport, construction and manufacturing, where foreign investment is allowed.

Taken together, these measures have laid out a clearer path for companies interested in M&A.

“Thai companies have acted more swiftly than their Japanese counterparts in striking M&A deals.”

Yoshida said that the reason was slower decision making process in Japan.Thai companies Central Group and TCC Holding expanded their presence in Vietnam’s retail market with the acquisitions of Big C Vietnam, and the Vietnam operations of fashion e-commerce platform Zalora and Metro Cash&Carry.

Another big-ticket deal that involves a Thai corporate buyer is the $1.1 billion transaction to buy majority stake in Masan Group‘s subsidiaries.

Meanwhile, Japanese investors have been active in various sectors, including ANA Holdings‘ strategic investment in Vietnam Airlines, Taisho’s acquisition of over 24 per cent in DHG Pharma, JX Nippon Oil & Energy’s 8 per cent shareholding in Petrolimex — the country’s largest distributor of petroleum products — and AEON‘s purchase of two local retailers.

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February 15, 2019ZONEZI No commentsBusiness, News

As internet penetration rates continue to rise in Southeast Asia, ASEAN grows more interconnected by the day.

Home to over 663 million inhabitants, the region is projected by many to be among the world’s most promising markets for a variety of internet based services.

Chief among these are services involved in what has been coined the “sharing economy” – a loose collection of peer-to-peer services known to substantially lower costs for key necessities such as transport and accommodation.

In a 2014 study conducted by Nielsen, Indonesia and the Philippines ranked as two of the top five populations worldwide primed to participate in the sharing economy. While Indonesia ranked second in the study, with 87 percent of respondents reporting a willingness to utilize products within a sharing economy, the Philippines only trailed by two percentage points, earning fourth place Vietnam

Thailand: New KYC Guidelines Issued

Thailand’s central Bank of Thailand (BOT) has introduced new regulations to ease the Know Your Customer (KYC) process using the electronic process (e-KYC) to open accounts on deposit acceptance of funds accepted from the public. Financial institutions globally are increasingly being required to comply with KYC guidelines under the anti-money laundering law (AML). As per the BOT Notification No. SorNOrSor. 7/2559 the following guidelines have been issued.

E-KYC procedures must have the same standards as KYC procedures and available only for individual customers using electronic means such as computers, mobile phones, other electronic devices etc. Financial institutions however, must get prior approval from the BOT.
Electronic signatures are acceptable.
Verification of customers must be done using ID cards or a smart card reader
Financial institutions must retain all information including KYC documents or their copies as per the AML law.

The regulation went into effect in August.

Vietnam

As Vietnam increasingly becomes a hub for foreign businesses, the government is streamlining the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) process to encourage investment in new sectors of the economy. While establishing a business in Vietnam may prove too cumbersome for some hopeful entrants, the M&A route provides a unique solution to many of these obstacles. With this path, investors will enjoy preexisting access to consumers, locations, and distribution channels. This local knowledge can prove critical to successful operations within Vietnam’s vibrant but rapidly changing investment environment .

To successfully carry out M&As within Vietnam, it is important to recognize the legal foundation of current policies, and to understand the procedures and limitations associated with acquisitions in Vietnam..

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February 15, 2019ZONEZI No commentsBusiness, News

As Japan investment is shifting to services, information technology and trading, which require less capital, Chinese investments are targeting heavy industries, thus surpassing Japanese input in Thailand for the first time.

Chinese investments in Thailand for the past eight months have surpassed Japanese Investments for the first time in history

After the Board of Investment adjusted its foreign direct investment promotional incentives BoI secretary-general Mrs Hirunya Sujinai explained Chinese investments were higher than Japanese investments for the first time because several Singaporean projects were Chinese-funded.

Altogether 332 projects worth 50,267 million baht applied for promotional privileges during the first eight months of this year.

Of these, 51 projects worth 13,100 million baht came from Singaporean investors; 37 projects worth 10,000 million baht came from Chinese investors and 92 projects worth 9,900 million baht came from Japanese investors.

After investigating the sources of investment funds, the agency found that many Chinese companies invested in Thailand via Singapore, so it considered China to be the largest foreign investor for the country this year.

Of the total investments during the first eight months, 39.5 percent were investments on alternative energy development, especially solar energy.

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Ron Paul Warns of Dollar Collapse 100%

Over the past few years, many experts have been warning of a crisis heading our way. More specifically, the concerns have centered on the inevitable collapse of the U.S. dollar. One of these individuals is former Congressman Ron Paul, who has stated that he believes the U.S. financial system is on the road to disaster. In this article, I’ll share some of his views and discuss what could happen if such a crisis materialized.

Currency Crisis

According to Congressman Paul, a U.S. currency crisis is inevitable. At one point in the 1980s, while riding on Marine One with President Reagan, the President said, “No great nation that has abandoned the gold standard has ever remained a great nation.” A few decades ago, former Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan stated, “In the absence of the gold standard there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation.” Without a gold standard, there is nothing to limit government spending. In short, as long as the government is able to overspend, the national debt will be the norm rather than the exception.

Since the gold standard was abandoned, what is backing our currency? Confidence! Without a hard asset backing up the dollar, it is supported only by the “full faith and credit of the federal government.” If the world lost confidence in the greenback, its value would plummet and life as we know it would be severely and forever altered. How will we know when the next crisis is about to emerge?

The first sign of a currency crisis, according to Paul, will be a precipitous decline in the value of the dollar. A collapse in our currency would result in a spike in inflation. It would also be accompanied by an increase in U.S. interest rates. Paul’s prediction, although rather dire, is for the collapse of the entire U.S. financial system. If this occurs, the systemic risk would be massive. If the U.S. financial system actually did collapse, it would take the entire global financial system with it. Why? Because there is over $18 trillion in U.S. debt outstanding, with China and Japan being the largest holders. A U.S. collapse would devastate the entire globe. Let’s turn our attention to the national debt, an issue which weighs heavily on the minds of millions of Americans.

U.S. National Debt

When the government spends more than it collects, the result is additional debt. From the signing of the Declaration of Independence in 1776 until 2008, the U.S. accumulated slightly over $10 trillion in federal debt. In the past seven years, the debt has nearly doubled to more than $18 trillion. By the year 2019, it is projected to exceed $20.3 trillion. When interest rates rise, the impact will be felt by the federal government as well as everyday Americans. First, it will increase the government’s cost of borrowing, which will cause the debt to rise even faster. It’s entirely possible that even a modest rise in interest rates could cause the debt to spiral out of control. This is because Washington is heavily dependent on borrowing to operate. Next, it will be much more difficult to expand or even maintain the welfare state. This fact alone will lead to mass riots as individuals who are dependent on a government check will take to the streets in protest. Also, the U.S. would have a more difficult time funding its presence (i.e. military bases) around the world. This would lead to a less stable socio-political environment and an uptick in radical behavior. Plus, a shortage in government revenue could result in a rather large tax increase and the eventual demise of the middle class. Finally, and as we’ve already seen, the federal government may decide to target 401ks and IRAs as a source of additional revenue. This could take the form of a tax or fee of some sort. Mr. Paul also mentioned the possibility of a tax on regular savings and other assets. If the government finds itself in a tight situation, as we’ve witnessed in the recent past, the potential intrusion could be severe.

Social Unrest

This discussion wouldn’t be complete without mentioning social unrest. As we’ve already seen, the match is lit and it wouldn’t take much for anarchy to manifest. In essence, there appears to be a significant amount of pent-up frustration among the electorate. For example, who expected the reaction in Ferguson, New York, or Baltimore? And this may only be the tip of the iceberg. A temporary government shutdown is also a distinct possibility. To this author, public protests seem to be on the rise and the bar of what’s reasonable appears to be quite low. Hence, I suspect this is only the beginning of more civil unrest in America.

The Clock is Ticking

Is the problem too advanced to solve? Can a crisis be avoided? These are valid questions. I believe we can still fix this, but as Paul stated, “Real monetary reform will only come after a major currency crisis hits.” Why? Is he just being pessimistic? No, I don’t believe so. What he is saying is that politics will get in the way and prevent a solution until it reaches a crisis point. This is a view I have held for quite a while. Until Congress is forced to find a solution, it’ll be business as usual. The former Congressman also said he believes the majority of those in government do not fully understand economics.

Is the U.S. Losing its Stature?

In the post WWII era, the U.S. dollar has been the global reserve currency. Prior to that, the British Pound filled this role. Recently, China has increased its trading with Germany, India, and others, excluding the dollar as the reserve currency. It seems the world is slowly transitioning away from the dollar. If this continues, the U.S. could lose its position as the world’s reserve currency. This would have numerous ramifications. A discussion on that is beyond the scope of this article. Mr. Paul also stated that 10 countries have already signed a document to begin phasing out the dollar as the basis of trade. Even the IMF has proposed a new world reserve currency system. The days of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency may well be numbered.

Some argue that the U.S. economy is on the mends and the stock market is near record highs. Therefore, things can’t be all that bad. While there is truth in this, according to Paul, stocks have risen due to Fed policy and political leaders. He also stated that printing money has never solved this type of problem….ever! He cited Germany, Russia, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Japan, China, Ukraine, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain as examples of countries that had similar problems to the U.S. and yet none of them was able to use the printing press to escape their problem.

Will the U.S. follow the path suggested by former Congressman, Ron Paul?

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Thailand takes steps to boost FDI

Tax exemptions and other incentives are set to spearhead Thailand’s efforts to boost foreign direct investment (FDI) in targeted areas of the economy.

The initiatives form part of a broader range of incentives and reforms aimed at increasing capital inflows into Thailand, with a particular focus on tapping investment for planned industrial clusters in the eastern economic corridor (EEC) project, an initiative of the public-private Pracha Rath scheme.

However, while efforts to stabilise the Thai economy are beginning to yield results, challenges, such as lower external demand and political uncertainty, remain a concern.

Tapping key markets

Speaking during a visit to China at the end of June, Somkid Jatusripitak, Thailand’s deputy prime minister, said the government’s new incentives and support package would be implemented in the third quarter of 2016.

Somkid was in China to highlight the opportunities for investors in the special industrial zones located throughout the EEC, which encompasses the provinces of Chon Buri, Rayong and Chachoengsao.

“The government is transforming the economy to a higher level,” Somkid told investors. “During this period of change, we need more investment from outside – and China is one of the targets.”

Planned incentives include corporate and personal income tax privileges beyond those already provided by Thailand’s Board of Investment (BoI), Somkid said. The raft of incentives will be bolstered by regulatory and legislative reforms aimed at improving the laws governing industrial management, financial services and investment.

The government has also said it would provide approximately 4160 ha of land as well as key infrastructure, such as the East-West ferry development project, to develop and support dedicated industrial estates – biotech, biofuel, aviation, IT and digital, medicine and medical equipment – throughout the EEC, with an expected total investment of between $55bn and $58bn, according to local media reports.

Thailand is also keen to boost capital inflows from India. During a visit to the country in mid-June, Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha said the government planned to introduce measures aimed at facilitating the flow of investment from India. He also highlighted the importance of speeding up negotiations on a free trade agreement between the two countries.

Targeted investment

While Thailand’s government is still finalising its incentive package, the government has already announced several measures aimed at attracting businesses.

In late June the revenue department announced plans to offer foreign experts operating in key fields tax exemptions for terms of between 10 to 15 years. The proposed waiver is scheduled to come into force in 2017, although details have yet to be made public.

The BoI, meanwhile, approved a personal income tax cut for foreign researchers and experts working in targeted industry clusters. The sectors, which are viewed by the government as key drivers of growth include: next-generation cars, smart electronics, logistics and aviation, biofuels and biochemical, and industrial robotics, among others.

In a similar move, the Cabinet signed off on a proposal at the end of May to double tax breaks for investors who launch or break ground on a new project in 2016.

Tackling shortfalls

Thailand has struggled to attract international investment in recent years, with political unrest and ensuing military intervention dampening overseas interest. Data issued by the BoI showed that applications from foreign investors for new projects fell from 3469 in 2014 to 1038 in 2015.

Local investors also appear to be adopting a cautious approach, according to a statement issued on June 30 by the Bank of Thailand (BoT). The central bank noted that although private investment had increased, the spread across the sectors of the economy was far from even.

While investment in alternative energy and telecommunications in May was up, the BoT noted that inflows “in other sectors stayed at a low level in line with remaining gaps of capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector”.

“This was consistent with a slower growth in total financing of businesses for real investment,” the BoT concluded.

Stability will be key

In late May, the ratings agency Moody’s noted government efforts to stabilise the economic situation and encourage growth and investment, but warned that ongoing political uncertainty remained a major concern.

“Such risk still weighs on FDI in the kingdom as well as Thai economic performance,” Christian de Guzman, vice-president and senior credit officer for sovereign risk at Moody’s in Singapore, said.

Moody’s caution over the impact of Thailand’s political climate on FDI was echoed in a report issued by the World Bank at the end of June.

“Foreign direct investments are likely to remain subdued, reflecting soft external demand and continuing political uncertainty,” the report said.

The World Bank added, however, that Thailand’s central location in East Asia meant it was well placed to leverage planned reforms in education, competitiveness and skills into trade and investment opportunities.

While acknowledging the concerns raised by analysts, the government remains upbeat about Thailand’s prospects for boosting incoming investment levels next year.

Officials expect political tensions to ease once general elections scheduled for the middle of 2017 have taken place, while the full implementation of incentives and FDI support, which is also targeted for next year, should further enhance the investment climate.

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February 15, 2019ZONEZI No commentsBusiness, News

An initiative driven by Thailand to develop closer financial integration and cooperation among Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) countries could bolster Bangkok’s position as a capital markets and banking centre.

Thailand’s campaign to strengthen fiscal and economic ties with its near neighbours reached a new level in June, with the hosting of a two-day summit for Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam and Thailand (CLMVT). Entitled “CLMVT: Prosper Together”, the event focused on developing a platform to reinforce sub-regional integration and connectivity in matters of trade, investment and tourism.

While much of the media coverage of the event centred around joint tourism promotions and proposals for visa-free travel between CLMVT countries, the seminar’s main focus was on financial connectivity.

Investing in infrastructure

One of the planks in this platform will be developing financial infrastructure to support the greater flow of capital and information. Veerathai Santiprabhob, governor of the Bank of Thailand (BOT) and a keynote speaker at the conference, emphasised that investing in infrastructure will be crucial to allowing CLMVT countries to work together and meet the demands of the changing financial landscape.

“Having adequate infrastructure, including a backbone payment system, a digital network and a credit bureau, will provide a sound basis to develop domestic financial systems and facilitate closer financial connectivity,” he said, noting that the development of regional ties will help reduce costs within the sector and across CLMVT economies, boosting cross-border trade and the broader use of e-payment systems.

Financial integration to mobilise funds

Another key message to come out of the conference was that further integration of CLMVT financial markets would support growth in each of the five countries, as well as cross-border expansion.

Speaking during a session on the roles of banking and finance in regional development, Chartsiri Sophonpanich, president of Bangkok Bank, stressed that while growth in the CLMVT region is set to remain strong in the coming years, in line with the 6.5-8.5% range posted in 2015, this could be increased further through tighter financial cooperation, thereby boosting the appeal of CLMVT countries to foreign investors.

Such a move, Sophonpanich said, would mobilise funding and put in place mutually agreed-upon mechanisms to minimise and more evenly distribute risk.

Strengthening the bond market

As the largest economy among the CLMVT bloc, and with the most developed capital markets and banking system, Thailand is well placed to take the lead on the financial connectivity initiative.

Thailand’s bond market is already gaining traction among CLMVT countries, bringing the region closer to financial integration.

In 2013 Laos issued the first in a series of baht-denominated bonds, with the latest coming out last year. At a total face value of BT28bn ($804m), the funds helped finance the Laotian government’s infrastructure development programme.

At the corporate level, Laotian utilities firm EDL Generation has also tapped the Thai capital markets, raising BT6.5bn ($187.8m) in late 2014 to fund the acquisition of power stations from its parent company, Electricité du Laos.

While Laos has been Thailand’s main customer for bond sales, there is strong interest from other countries launching offerings in Thailand.

In 2014 the Cambodian government indicated it could follow the Laotian example by issuing a baht-denominated sovereign bond in 2018. Consultants advising the Cambodian government said at the time that Thailand represented the best opportunity for a sovereign bond launch, as Thai authorities had put in place mechanisms to support such cross-border issues.

More recently, however, Cambodian officials indicated that any baht-denominated bond would require regulatory reforms, similar to what has been suggested by Thailand in its call to lower financial barriers and boost connectivity.

Thailand’s bond market is also attracting interest from further afield. Year-to-date, four foreign lenders – ANZ Bank of Australia, Central American Bank for Economic Integration, National Bank of Abu Dhabi and Malaysia-based Maybank – were given regulatory approval to tap Thai markets through a baht bond issue.

The Ministry of Finance has also taken steps to boost the bond market’s appeal, announcing that, as of January, it would review applications to issue bonds by foreign issuers on a monthly basis, rather than every quarter, citing increased appetite for baht-denominated issues.

BOT opening doors

The BOT is similarly working to boost CLMVT financial connectivity, including by easing regulations to allow firms operating in the GMS to obtain loans from Thai banks for direct sub-regional investment, without setting a lending cap.

According to Santiprabhob, the BOT is encouraging Thai banks to extend their operations into the GMS to promote trade and investment. As of May, Thailand had at least 30 branches and subsidiaries open in the region. Cross-border money transfers have also been facilitated through the establishing of ATM connectivity between Thailand and both Myanmar and Laos, expanding the reach of Thai banks.

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February 15, 2019ZONEZI No commentsBusiness, News

A stronger-than-expected performance in the first quarter has prompted analysts to revise their year-end growth forecasts for the Thai economy, though some remained cautious in the face of ongoing challenges both at home and abroad.

Data issued in May by Thailand’s National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) put year-on-year (y-o-y) growth for the first quarter of 2016 at 3.2%, the country’s highest in three years.

The positive results were attributed to high levels of state spending and a strong showing in Thailand’s tourism industry; however, weak export figures have sounded a note of concern.

State spending proves pivotal

Thailand’s economy expanded by 0.9% during the first three months of 2016, up from 0.8% in the previous quarter.

The results prompted the NESDB to revise its year-end forecast to between 3% and 3.5%, up from its previous estimate of between 2.8% and 3.8% in February. The Bank of Thailand (BoT), the country’s central bank, meanwhile, said it expects the Thai economy to expand by 3.1% in 2016. This comes on 2.5% growth in 2015.

Although the country’s economy has outperformed initial forecasts, growth remained uneven across sectors.

The government pumped BT654bn ($18.5bn) into the economy through direct expenditure and soft loans in a bid to stimulate growth and aid recovery.

Thailand recorded an 8% y-o-y increase in public consumption in the first quarter, while public investment was up 12.4%. The injection of capital helped boost activity and offset more sluggish growth in the private sector, where consumption rose by just 2.3%. Private investment, meanwhile, inched up a more muted 2.1%, according to the NESDB.

Double-digit growth in the construction and tourism sectors contributed significantly to the first-quarter results.

Thailand’s construction sector was up 11.2% y-o-y, supported by strong public investment flows. Increased spending on infrastructure and project development is likely to continue, pointing to a bright outlook for the construction sector and its related industries through 2016 and beyond.

The number of incoming tourists, meanwhile, surged by 15.5% to reach 9m, putting Thailand on track to meet its target of 33m arrivals for the year. The NESDB expects the tourism industry to generate revenues of BT1.68trn ($47.6bn) this year, accounting for 12% of GDP, up from 10% last year.

Hotels and the hospitality industry also benefitted from higher tourist volumes, with the broader services sector recording 15.8% growth.

Setbacks and slowdowns

The first quarter results were more muted for other industries, including manufacturing, agriculture and exports.

Thailand’s manufacturing industry, which accounts for around 30% of GDP, contracted by 0.3% y-o-y, weighed down by declining vehicle output and a slower growth in related industries.

Capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector remained stagnant at 64% in May, below the historical average of 68%, and could remain at this level due to weak export growth.

Agricultural output, meanwhile, was down for a sixth consecutive quarter, slipping by 1.5% y-o-y on lower demand and adverse weather conditions caused by the El Niño climate pattern, which brought drought to much of Thailand in early 2016.

According to the BoT, exports contracted 1.4% in the first quarter, with the government citing lower commodity and oil prices as well as weak global demand. Among the key segments in decline were industrial goods (7.8%), electronics (5.3%) and agricultural products (2.8%).

A stronger Thai baht, which is up by nearly 2% against the dollar year-to-date, is also expected to curb demand for Thai exports, according to the BoT, which expects exports to decline by 2% over the year – a downward revision from the previous forecast of zero growth.

Fluctuating forecasts

Despite broadly positive early indicators for the year, some experts remain cautious. DBS Bank, for example, warned that weak private sector demand, combined with poor showings in manufacturing and agriculture, could weigh on the country’s full-year growth prospects.

Commenting in a report issued in May, the bank cautioned that ongoing sluggish growth in Thailand’s manufacturing sector could put jobs at risk. The industry currently provides employment for around 16% of Thailand’s workforce.

DBS Bank said full-year growth looked likely to fall short of 3.5%, while also noting that first-quarter growth would have eased to 1.5% if not been for the public sector’s contributions.

The bank’s prediction followed a move in March by the Asian Development Bank to lower its forecast for Thailand’s GDP growth this year from 3.5% to 3%, citing slower growth in key global economies.

Amid continued economic uncertainty, the BoT chose to hold its key one-day repo rate at 1.5% in May. Senior officials at the BoT cited concerns over financial stability, along with the weakened debt service ability of agricultural households and small businesses.

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February 15, 2019ZONEZI No commentsBusiness, News