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Good fortunes forecast for 2018

The EEC, mass transit projects and a brighter economy bring good tidings for the real estate market.

Thailand’s property market prospects are expected to be bright next year based on the country’s economic expansion, government spending on big-ticket infrastructure projects and the rise of the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC).

Surachet Kongcheep, a property analyst, says market growth will mirror the country’s positive economic trajectory. Key factors boosting the economy are spending on the EEC and mass transit line expansion.

SET-listed contractor Ch.Karnchang Plc said new infrastructure projects that the government plans to open for bidding next year include the southern Purple Line from Tao Poon to Rat Burana — the largest one at 130 billion baht.

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February 16, 2019No comments,
What to expect from Thailand’s employment market in 2018
With the Thailand 4.0 blueprint becoming a key driver of evolution towards a value economy, Thailand is set to become a centre of innovation and technology in South East Asia.

Alibaba has recently announced their strategic partnership with the Thai government in support of Thailand 4.0, which will bolster developments in e-commerce and digital talent. A “Smart Digital Hub” aimed at boosting regional and global trade will also allow the kingdom to access China’s large consumer base. All these point to a strong outlook for professional recruitment services in Thailand as the need for a more sophisticated workforce increases. Here are some of the key employment trends to look out for this year:

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February 16, 2019No comments,
Gains made in transparency for Thai property market

THAILAND has been ranked 34th in the Global Real Estate Transparency Index (GRETI) 2018 put out by property consultancy firm JLL.

The result in the newly released biannual represents a marked improvement from the 2016 edition of the index, when the country was ranked 38th.

Compared with the other six countries from Southeast Asia covered by the index, Thailand is ranked the third most transparent real estate market in the sub-region, followed by Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Myanmar, which were ranked globally 42nd, 48th, 61st and 73rd, respectively.

JLL said the 10th edition of the GRETI contains the most comprehensive country comparisons of data availability, governance, transaction processes, property rights and the regulatory/legal environment around the world. The 2018 Index covers 100 countries and 158 city markets, and the number of individual factors covered has increased by 36 per cent to 186 factors.

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February 16, 2019No comments,
Hong Kong investors to stay a force in Thai property market

IN THE PAST DECADE, Thai properties marketed overseas were either projects in prime downtown Bangkok or properties in top resort destinations such as Phuket.

Nowadays, visitors and investors are becoming more familiar with other non-prime locations in Bangkok through information from social media and digital communications.

New condominium property prices in downtown Bangkok have increased to an average of over Bt260,000 per square metre, with starting prices of over Bt10 million. The high Central Business District (CBD) prices combined with marketing efforts of non-prime locations by Thai developers, over the last two years, has increased awareness and interest from overseas investors in non-CBD Bangkok locations who are keen to invest in the fringe of the downtown areas or in midtown locations, especially along the extended mass transit lines where prices are more affordable than downtown areas.

The popular prices for these locations range between Bt3 to 10 million per unit.

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February 16, 2019No comments,
Luxury real estate prospers

One thing that I love about Phuket is the ability for luxury to live side by side with abject casualness. You could be sitting next to a multi-millionaire or a packaged tourist on the bar stool, as the ties that bind are the flip-flops adorning your respective feet.

Islands tend to have little social stratification, which can probably be explained in a Robinson Crusoe round-about manner. Be it a local eatery, or stepping down the aisles of Villa Market, or indeed sitting in the crowd at a kids’ sporting event at one of Phuket’s many international schools, the pecking order doesn’t much matter at these venues.

All that equality of course does not necessarily apply to where the top end of the market lay down their heads on comfy pillows at night. The history of luxury pool villas has been recanted many times around the local watering holes, so that’s no place we need to go now.

One clear positive sign for Phuket’s luxury real estate is the amount of impressive new product now coming into the marketplace. Just a few days ago, I had the chance to visit one of the newest launches, Avadina Hills overlooking Layan Beach, and once you catch your breath, all of Bangtao Bay and beyond.

Size does matter in what has been a hand-crafted effort of 22 ultra estate villas. One feature that I personally love is the ample plot size with an average of two rai each. With configurations mainly of four bedrooms, built up areas range from 1,700-1,800 square meters and internal built up space of over 709sqm.

Is the price tag, starting from 300 million baht, high? Certainly, but viewing the high level of quality, the artistic framework of architect Sakakura Associates and landscape planner James Hyatt, ultimately the price tag is attuned to the exclusivity, privacy and view overlooking one of the island’s most sensational vistas.

Writing this, I can almost hear the online boo-birds chirping about the demise of Phuket, being overrun by cheap travellers and with a declining trajectory. Yet, looking at the bare facts and quality of investment into the island’s luxury property sector by well-heeled groups and affiliates like Kajima (Japan), Minor (Thailand), HPL (Singapore), and New World (Hong Kong), the reality seems to suggest that, despite a world gone mad, upscale property is continuing to find a global marketplace in Phuket.

Over the next 12 to 18 months, more than US$500 million in new luxury estate villas will enter into the market, including notable projects such as Rosewood, MontAzure and others, joining Avadina Hills, Anantara Residences and Point Yamu by Como. One reality of the sector is that a fresh phase of demand will be induced by the world class product and will generate sales from both domestic and overseas buyers.

If you want a reality check about Phuket’s leadership in real estate, take a drive on Kamala’s Millionaire’s Mile some time, or take a look at the superyachts that can’t find space at the island’s overfilled marinas.

There is little doubt that our island is transforming into an urbanized landscape, and yes – volume is inevitable in all things we do and see. Yet, putting perspective into the real estate sector, and viewing the positive investment sentiment, all indications are that we will continue to move ahead as we enter the next development cycle.

Luxury living is indeed finding more partners to sleep with, given some very spectacular new products that are gracing our shores.

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February 15, 2019No commentsApartment|Business Development|House for families|Houzez|Luxury|Real Estate
Builders urge tax breaks for buyers

Property developers are urging the government and its new economic cabinet to use tax incentives to help restore housing demand in the remaining months of this year.

They are concerned that already-soft demand will be weakened further by Monday night’s bomb attack.

Cutting property tax and transaction fees would help to stimulate the economy in general and the property market in particular, said Thongma Vijitpongpun, president and chief executive of Pruksa Real Estate Plc.

He proposes the property transfer fee be reduced to 0.02% from 2%, mortgage fee to 0.01% from 1% and special business tax to 0.01% from 3.3%.

The cuts should be applied to housing units priced 2 million baht or lower, which would help low-income earners to afford their own home, Mr Thongma said.

“If these incentives were applied to higher-priced segments, annual tax revenue could miss the target,” he said.

Atip Bijanonda, president of the Housing Business Association (HBA), said the overall economy in the remaining months and full-year GDP growth would depend largely on economic stimulus.

“We’re not worried about new-home transfers in the rest of the year, as those will keep growing,” he said. “But new-home sales are a concern due to unfavourable market sentiment in the housing sector and the weak economy, which is expected to be dampened further by the deadly bombing.”

The HBA has revised down this year’s housing market forecast to only zero to 5% growth from 5-10%.

Mr Atip suggests developers stay more focused on cash flow and be more cautious of new projects being launched between now and year-end.

Theerathat Singnarongthon, assistant chief executive of  Property Perfect Plc, said the company recently scaled down the number of new launches this year to 15 projects worth a combined 20 billion baht from 22 projects worth 26 billion.

“Trying to generate sales amid weak market sentiment is exhausting, particularly after the bombing,” he said.

“We need to be more selective in new launches and make sure of demand.”

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February 15, 2019No comments, Apartment|Business Development|House for families|Houzez|Luxury|Real Estate
Thailand seeks to boost health of medical tourism segment

An expanded product range aimed at broadening the client base alongside plans to target new markets are part of Thailand’s campaign to shore up its medical tourism industry, which is coming under pressure from increased competition and weaker economic performance in key source countries.

In early September the Ministry of Public Health unveiled a new series of packages as part of the “Visit Thailand Enhance Your Healthy Life” programme aimed at increasing medical and wellness tourism arrivals.

Under the new initiative – developed in conjunction with state agencies and private health care providers – overseas visitors will be able to undergo standard health checks at up to 70 internationally certified hospitals and clinics, combining a regular medical assessment with their vacation. Additionally, the ministry is introducing a wider range of dental and reproductive health services for foreign visitors.

The government is also looking at shifting its promotional efforts towards newer markets, such as China, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam, to take advantage of the growing affluence in those countries and the rising demand for professional health care.

To encourage health tourism from these nations, the government has tripled the period visitors undergoing medical treatments can stay in Thailand to 90 days. This would allow for overseas visitors to undergo extensive procedures and to potentially combine treatment with leisure travel.

Uncertain prognosis

Efforts to broaden the base of Thailand’s health and wellness tourism sector are timely, as the market is coming under pressure from a range of external factors.

Last year the medical tourism segment maintained its record of strong growth, with local media reporting foreign patient numbers up 10.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 1.8m in in early September, representing 6% of total arrivals in 2015. It is estimated that receipts from medical tourism account for 0.4% of national GDP.

This strong performance, however, could come under threat this year. Local financial services firm Kasikorn Securities has warned that weaker economic growth in key visitor markets such as the Middle East and Russia, a result of lower energy prices, could erode the numbers of foreign visitors making use of Thailand’s medical facilities.

Furthermore, improved service provision offered by clinics in the UAE, a significant market for Thailand’s medical tourism segment, is also draining off client numbers, the Kasikorn report said.

This external pressure has seen a retreat of the health care services index on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), with a number of primary medical services providers posting sharp falls in their share prices this year. However, despite having fallen from highs recorded in late April and still trending downwards as of mid-September, the index is performing better than other industrial groups on the SET.

Though many health services providers are coming under pressure as a result of economic downturn in key markets, most are continuing to post solid earnings results.

Of the 17 health service companies listed on the SET, only one posted a y-o-y loss in the first six months of the year, according to data issued by the market. The SET’s health care service index saw listed firms report a combined 7.4% increase in sales y-o-y, though overall gross profit margins against expenses dipped marginally, down to 33.6% compared to 34.2% in the first half of last year.

While in the short term the weaker performance of Middle Eastern economies will affect the operations of those Thai health care providers that serve the medical tourism industry, the new products and the opening up of new markets should help to sustain growth.

The expansion of economies in countries such as Vietnam and Myanmar, which do not yet have health systems to match that of Thailand, should see the development of a new client base, according to Jintana Mekintharanggur, director of equity investment in Bangkok for Manulife Asset Management.

“In the short term the economic slowdown in the Middle East will weaken some investor’s confidence on earnings growth for domestic hospital operators,” she told international media at the end of May. However, due to Thailand’s ability to compete regionally, the company is still reportedly bullish on the sector.

Health threat to medical tourism

Another challenge Thailand’s medical sector and the broader tourism industry faces in attracting overseas clientele is the recent spike in cases of the Zika virus in the country and, in particular, in the capital. At least 100 cases of the mosquito-borne disease had been confirmed by mid-September.

Thai authorities have said there is no need for alarm as every measure was being taken to combat the spread of the virus. However, Anuttarasakdi Ratchatatat, epidemiologist at the Ministry of Health, acknowledged in mid-September that Zika could deter overseas visitors, when explaining why only broad information about infection rates was being released.

“The information on Zika is quite sensitive because if we say which province has infections then attention will turn on that province, and if that province is popular with tourists it will have an impact on tourism,” he said.

Any downturn in medical tourism arrivals could allow rivals in the sector, such as Malaysia, Turkey and India, to increase their market share at Thailand’s expense.

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February 15, 2019No comments
Thailand bids to become regional financial hub
An initiative driven by Thailand to develop closer financial integration and cooperation among Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) countries could bolster Bangkok’s position as a capital markets and banking centre.

Thailand’s campaign to strengthen fiscal and economic ties with its near neighbours reached a new level in June, with the hosting of a two-day summit for Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam and Thailand (CLMVT). Entitled “CLMVT: Prosper Together”, the event focused on developing a platform to reinforce sub-regional integration and connectivity in matters of trade, investment and tourism.

While much of the media coverage of the event centred around joint tourism promotions and proposals for visa-free travel between CLMVT countries, the seminar’s main focus was on financial connectivity.

Investing in infrastructure

One of the planks in this platform will be developing financial infrastructure to support the greater flow of capital and information. Veerathai Santiprabhob, governor of the Bank of Thailand (BOT) and a keynote speaker at the conference, emphasised that investing in infrastructure will be crucial to allowing CLMVT countries to work together and meet the demands of the changing financial landscape.

“Having adequate infrastructure, including a backbone payment system, a digital network and a credit bureau, will provide a sound basis to develop domestic financial systems and facilitate closer financial connectivity,” he said, noting that the development of regional ties will help reduce costs within the sector and across CLMVT economies, boosting cross-border trade and the broader use of e-payment systems.

Financial integration to mobilise funds

Another key message to come out of the conference was that further integration of CLMVT financial markets would support growth in each of the five countries, as well as cross-border expansion.

Speaking during a session on the roles of banking and finance in regional development, Chartsiri Sophonpanich, president of Bangkok Bank, stressed that while growth in the CLMVT region is set to remain strong in the coming years, in line with the 6.5-8.5% range posted in 2015, this could be increased further through tighter financial cooperation, thereby boosting the appeal of CLMVT countries to foreign investors.

Such a move, Sophonpanich said, would mobilise funding and put in place mutually agreed-upon mechanisms to minimise and more evenly distribute risk.

Strengthening the bond market

As the largest economy among the CLMVT bloc, and with the most developed capital markets and banking system, Thailand is well placed to take the lead on the financial connectivity initiative.

Thailand’s bond market is already gaining traction among CLMVT countries, bringing the region closer to financial integration.

In 2013 Laos issued the first in a series of baht-denominated bonds, with the latest coming out last year. At a total face value of BT28bn ($804m), the funds helped finance the Laotian government’s infrastructure development programme.

At the corporate level, Laotian utilities firm EDL Generation has also tapped the Thai capital markets, raising BT6.5bn ($187.8m) in late 2014 to fund the acquisition of power stations from its parent company, Electricité du Laos.

While Laos has been Thailand’s main customer for bond sales, there is strong interest from other countries launching offerings in Thailand.

In 2014 the Cambodian government indicated it could follow the Laotian example by issuing a baht-denominated sovereign bond in 2018. Consultants advising the Cambodian government said at the time that Thailand represented the best opportunity for a sovereign bond launch, as Thai authorities had put in place mechanisms to support such cross-border issues.

More recently, however, Cambodian officials indicated that any baht-denominated bond would require regulatory reforms, similar to what has been suggested by Thailand in its call to lower financial barriers and boost connectivity.

Thailand’s bond market is also attracting interest from further afield. Year-to-date, four foreign lenders – ANZ Bank of Australia, Central American Bank for Economic Integration, National Bank of Abu Dhabi and Malaysia-based Maybank – were given regulatory approval to tap Thai markets through a baht bond issue.

The Ministry of Finance has also taken steps to boost the bond market’s appeal, announcing that, as of January, it would review applications to issue bonds by foreign issuers on a monthly basis, rather than every quarter, citing increased appetite for baht-denominated issues.

BOT opening doors

The BOT is similarly working to boost CLMVT financial connectivity, including by easing regulations to allow firms operating in the GMS to obtain loans from Thai banks for direct sub-regional investment, without setting a lending cap.

According to Santiprabhob, the BOT is encouraging Thai banks to extend their operations into the GMS to promote trade and investment. As of May, Thailand had at least 30 branches and subsidiaries open in the region. Cross-border money transfers have also been facilitated through the establishing of ATM connectivity between Thailand and both Myanmar and Laos, expanding the reach of Thai banks.

February 15, 2019No comments,
Thai economy looks to strong first quarter results
A stronger-than-expected performance in the first quarter has prompted analysts to revise their year-end growth forecasts for the Thai economy, though some remained cautious in the face of ongoing challenges both at home and abroad.

Data issued in May by Thailand’s National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) put year-on-year (y-o-y) growth for the first quarter of 2016 at 3.2%, the country’s highest in three years.

The positive results were attributed to high levels of state spending and a strong showing in Thailand’s tourism industry; however, weak export figures have sounded a note of concern.

State spending proves pivotal

Thailand’s economy expanded by 0.9% during the first three months of 2016, up from 0.8% in the previous quarter.

The results prompted the NESDB to revise its year-end forecast to between 3% and 3.5%, up from its previous estimate of between 2.8% and 3.8% in February. The Bank of Thailand (BoT), the country’s central bank, meanwhile, said it expects the Thai economy to expand by 3.1% in 2016. This comes on 2.5% growth in 2015.

Although the country’s economy has outperformed initial forecasts, growth remained uneven across sectors.

The government pumped BT654bn ($18.5bn) into the economy through direct expenditure and soft loans in a bid to stimulate growth and aid recovery.

Thailand recorded an 8% y-o-y increase in public consumption in the first quarter, while public investment was up 12.4%.  The injection of capital helped boost activity and offset more sluggish growth in the private sector, where consumption rose by just 2.3%. Private investment, meanwhile, inched up a more muted 2.1%, according to the NESDB.

Double-digit growth in the construction and tourism sectors contributed significantly to the first-quarter results.

Thailand’s construction sector was up 11.2% y-o-y, supported by strong public investment flows. Increased spending on infrastructure and project development is likely to continue, pointing to a bright outlook for the construction sector and its related industries through 2016 and beyond.

The number of incoming tourists, meanwhile, surged by 15.5% to reach 9m, putting Thailand on track to meet its target of 33m arrivals for the year. The NESDB expects the tourism industry to generate revenues of BT1.68trn ($47.6bn) this year, accounting for 12% of GDP, up from 10% last year.

Hotels and the hospitality industry also benefitted from higher tourist volumes, with the broader services sector recording 15.8% growth.

Setbacks and slowdowns

The first quarter results were more muted for other industries, including manufacturing, agriculture and exports.

Thailand’s manufacturing industry, which accounts for around 30% of GDP, contracted by 0.3% y-o-y, weighed down by declining vehicle output and a slower growth in related industries.

Capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector remained stagnant at 64% in May, below the historical average of 68%, and could remain at this level due to weak export growth.

Agricultural output, meanwhile, was down for a sixth consecutive quarter, slipping by 1.5% y-o-y on lower demand and adverse weather conditions caused by the El Niño climate pattern, which brought drought to much of Thailand in early 2016.

According to the BoT, exports contracted 1.4% in the first quarter, with the government citing lower commodity and oil prices as well as weak global demand. Among the key segments in decline were industrial goods (7.8%), electronics (5.3%) and agricultural products (2.8%).

A stronger Thai baht, which is up by nearly 2% against the dollar year-to-date, is also expected to curb demand for Thai exports, according to the BoT, which expects exports to decline by 2% over the year – a downward revision from the previous forecast of zero growth.

Fluctuating forecasts

Despite broadly positive early indicators for the year, some experts remain cautious. DBS Bank, for example, warned that weak private sector demand, combined with poor showings in manufacturing and agriculture, could weigh on the country’s full-year growth prospects.

Commenting in a report issued in May, the bank cautioned that ongoing sluggish growth in Thailand’s manufacturing sector could put jobs at risk. The industry currently provides employment for around 16% of Thailand’s workforce.

DBS Bank said full-year growth looked likely to fall short of 3.5%, while also noting that first-quarter growth would have eased to 1.5% if not been for the public sector’s contributions.

The bank’s prediction followed a move in March by the Asian Development Bank to lower its forecast for Thailand’s GDP growth this year from 3.5% to 3%, citing slower growth in key global economies.

Amid continued economic uncertainty, the BoT chose to hold its key one-day repo rate at 1.5% in May. Senior officials at the BoT cited concerns over financial stability, along with the weakened debt service ability of agricultural households and small businesses.

February 15, 2019No comments,
Thailand Foreign Direct Investment
Foreign Direct Investment in Thailand is expected to be -5480.00 THB Million by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Foreign Direct Investment in Thailand to stand at 20000.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Thailand Foreign Direct Investment is projected to trend around 24000.00 THB Million in 2020, according to our econometric models.

Forecast Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020 Unit
Foreign Direct Investment -31178 -5480 -25100 24000 20000 24000 THB Million
Thailand Foreign Direct Investment Forecasts are projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model calibrated using our analysts expectations. We model the past behaviour of Thailand Foreign Direct Investment using vast amounts of historical data and we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account our analysts assessments and future expectations. The forecast for – Thailand Foreign Direct Investment – was last predicted on Sunday, October 23, 2016.
Thailand Trade Last Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Balance of Trade 2130 351 2614 2442 1575 135
Exports 18830 16658 17729 18480 16965 19045
Imports 16700 16308 15115 16038 15390 18910
Current Account 3810 5200 4700 4000 1400 5000
Current Account to GDP 3.8 2.66 2.89 3.12 3.35 2.37
External Debt 143135 149251 150779 152133 135538 139000
Terms of Trade 114 113 113 113 113 113
Tourist Arrivals 2874420 2690763 2702194 2700646 2700806 3010000
Gold Reserves 152 152 152 152 152 152
Terrorism Index 7.28 7.35 7.25 7.25 7.25 6.8
Remittances 9545 8452 8299 8230 8193 8149
Crude Oil Production 245 230 220 255 220 250
Foreign Direct Investment -31178 -5480 -25100 24000 20000 24000
February 15, 2019No comments,